Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Top 5 Picks in the NFL Draft: Why Most of Them Just Won't Help


Let’s Talk Draft: What teams with top 5 picks need, why they need these players and why these players, in most cases, won’t help a thing.

So let’s get this started, the Rams are on the clock…

RAMS (1-15)
Needs - Steven Jackson, Jason Smith and Chris Long watch from the training room in horror as the team plane goes down on the way back from an off season team-togetherness trip to Mexico. To rebuild quickly, the league allows the Rams to take a few players from each other NFL team to fill its roster-- like an expansion team. The Rams improve vastly at every position.

Sometimes less is actually more.

I would never actually wish this on the Rams, but I think their fans might. They need some serious, serious help. Record wise, no, but talent wise, this team is worse than the 0-16 Lions of 2009. They just are, they have no weapons except Steven Jackson, who is just collecting dust wishing he had stayed in college and was a CPA at a bank somewhere.

Should Pick - Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska. You take Ndamukong Suh here and you thank your lucky stars. He is a force in the inside and a can’t miss. Look at the 2008 Titans, Albert Haynesworth was that team. Kerry Collins did nothing as the quarterback, he managed the games, handed the ball off, and they went 14-2. No one is denying that a quarterback has a bigger affect on a football game than a defensive lineman, but a quarterback with no help or protection develops bad habits and struggles. Take the sure thing, build a hard working no superstar team and then get a quarterback to take you to the next level.

Will Pick - Sam Bradford. Can I blame them? Yes. He is far from a sure thing, he was injured last season, he’s stick thin, he took all of his snaps from shotgun, he has curly hair… The list goes on. The reason they’ll do it? They haven’t had a real franchise quarterback since Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf (Bulger was never thaaaaaaaaaaat good). They’re fans want it and they want their fans. So really maybe you can’t blame them. Defensive Tackle jerseys are just tough to market to skinny people.

LIONS (2-14)
The Lions have built the wrong way, offense first, and because of that they will struggle for a long time. You can’t score enough points to win in the NFL. All great teams have a defense.

 Finally some picks that seem to be paying off for the Lions.

Needs - Lions are pretty solid at QB, RB, WR and TE which is pretty shocking for a 2-14 team. Their defense on the other hand? They gave up a league worst 392.7 yards a game last year, a league worst 265 passing yards a game and an eighth worst 126 rush yards a game. They need some serious help everywhere on D. Oh, did I mention they traded Ernie Sims, their starting middle linebacker and one of their few good defenders?

Should Pick - Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. They should pick him because Suh should be off the board. However, with Suh falling, you go with Suh. A great DT can change the game. He might not make the big hits, force the key fumbles or get the flashy interceptions, but Suh will draw double and triple teams, clog up the middle on runs, create one-on-one matchups for his defensive ends on the outside, and be the hardest working, biggest guy on your team.

Will Pick - Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska. I like it. The Lions need it, they know what they are getting, there is no reason to get cute here. The Lions have messed up too many top 10 picks before.

BUCCANEERS (3-13)
Tampa Bay is really a team on the decline. A classic case of an organization who thinks they are above their players and coaches. Jon Gruden is a great NFL couch, he’s a leader and a schemer. He gets the best out of his players and Tampa thrived under him in his first year, winning the Superbowl. Then Tampa thought, we’re the best! They thought they didn’t need their stars; W. Sapp - gone, M. Pittman - gone, Keyshawn - gone, Simeon Rice - gone, J. Lynch gone, B. Johnson gone. This is a ton of talent lost, but Gruden held the team together, because he is a great coach. Then, when missing the playoff wasn’t enough, even though their record was about 5 games better than their talent dictated, they got rid of Gruden… then they went 3-13. Next year… they probably won’t win three.

Look at the Patriots, an organization that has proven to be above its players and coaches. Through all of the shuffling of coaches and players two things have remained constant; Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren’t going anywhere. 

 Brady and Belichick aren't going anywhere.

Needs: Tampa Bay needs a QB, I know they drafted Josh Freedman last year… Okay, so QB, RB, WR, let’s speed this up, they have an old Ronde Barber, that’s about it.

Should Pick: Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. Tampa Bay allowed the most rushing yards in the league last year, 158 per game. That is a good way to lose games and annoy your fans-- at least passing touchdown are quick. They need a run stopper and with Suh off the board that’s McCoy. Scouts rank him just as high as Suh on most draft boards. He is solid, you have seen him dominate in college. Take the safe impact player at three overall.

Will Pick: Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. They won’t blow this one, there isn’t really a blow it pick here, who are you going to take Tebow? Haha…ha…ha… Shut it! I’m a big Tebow supporter.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-12)
Here we finally have a team that falls firmly into the underachieved, will be much better next year, category. They lost five games they should have won last year and now they have a franchise quarterback in Donovan McNabb. I see this team in the playoffs next year, so what piece helps them get there?

Needs: They have some talent at WR in Santana Moss and Devin Thomas and two really solid players at TE in Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. Would Dez Bryant help? Yes, but at number four there is no way they can take him here. If they trade down, maybe he comes back into the picture. They also need some help in the defensive backfield and on the offensive line.

Should Pick: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. The Redskins should protect their most recent investment with a very solid offensive tackle. It might not be flashy, but dominant offensive lines win games. We have seen a lot of great running backs and quarterbacks falter when their offensive line deteriorates.

Will Pick: Eric Berry S, Tennessee. The Redskins like to make a splash, they often ignore needs to go with a flashy talent. This team loved hard hitting Sean Taylor and they get a similar player in Eric Berry. This pick is far from thrown away, they address a defensive need in getting Berry and get a top upside talent who is ready to play right now.

 Remind you of anyone else who wore a Redskin's jersey?

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
Another just God awful team. I like rooting for the Chiefs, I’m not really sure why, but I do. This team was right on mark at four wins last year and they will be there for a while. They have a backup for a quarterback, a backup for a running back and well, backups for almost every other position. It’s hard to understand how it gets this bad.

 What happened to Larry Johnson? What happened to the Chiefs? Maybe Larry Johnson happened to the Chiefs.

Should Take: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. or Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa. Berry would have also been an interesting choice, but with him off the board it’s time to choose which offensive tackle you like best.

Will Pick: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. The Chiefs and Scott Pioli are boring, they’ll make the right pick.

I know that all teams do their homework, but I find it extremely interesting when a player falls further than anyone anticipated he would, and teams have to make decisions they didn’t really anticipate having to make. Teams didn’t expect Adrian Peterson to be around after the first three picks in 2007. As a result he fell to 7th. Teams had to make a choice between addressing a need, one they had really wrapped their minds around and were happy with, and getting a potential game changer. The Lions, Browns, Bucs, Cardinals and Redskins erred on the side of caution. You think they regret that now? I see a lot of those same names in the top 5 of this draft.

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