The Decade's Worst and Best at Each of the Top Ten Picks

 In anticipation of the Raider’s epically bad draft selection tonight during the NFL Draft -- I’m predicting Tim Tebow -- let’s go back over the past ten drafts and give you the best and worst selections at each of the top ten picks.

Best 10^th Pick - 2003 Ravens select Arizona State DE Terrell Suggs

Want to hear some stats? In college Suggs recorded 163 tackles, a staggering 65.5 tackles for a loss, and an NCAA career record 44 sacks. As a junior he recorded 24 of those sacks, another NCAA record. The Ravens thought that skill set would transfer well to the pros, and guess what, it has. He’s been to three Pro Bowls, has recorded 427 tackles, 57.5 sacks and 5 interceptions, and has been an integral part of one of the best defenses in recent memory.

Worst 10^th Pick - 2005 Lions select USC WR Mike Williams

Mike Williams was a standout wide out at USC. In two years he pulled in 176 receptions and 30 touchdowns. That’s a lot. That’s averaging over a touchdown a game. Then, showing the early signs of mental retardation, followed Maurice Clarett into the NFL Draft as a sophomore -- Remember Clarett? He’s in jail. He was arrested when police found a Katana and a loaded AK-47 in the trunk of his car. Probably a guy I don’t want to make fun of. So…back to Williams; he lost his lawsuit with the NFL and was forced to sit out the season because he had hired an agent. The next year he was selected 10^th overall by the Detroit Lions. His professional numbers? Well he has weighed as much as 270 pounds, more than some Broncos’ lineman, has 44 receptions and 2 TD’s. Not exactly what you’re looking for from the tenth pick in the draft. Add that he was traded to, and then cut by, the Raiders, a team that has no right to cut anyone, and that should tell you all you need to know about Mikey’s career.

Is this the guy you want to be using as a role model?

Williams recently signed with the Seahawks and his former coach Peter Carroll, so we’re rooting for him to turn it around. But as of now, he’s the worst 10^th pick of the last ten years.

(Honorable mentions: 2006 Cardinals - USC QB Matt Leinart, 2001 Packers - Florida State DE Jamal Reynolds)

Best 9^th Pick - 2000 Bears select New Mexico S/LB Brian Urlacher

Urlacher played safety, linebacker, kickoff return man and wide receiver in college. He had 7 receptions, 6 of them for touchdowns. He was good, but he played at New Mexico which makes him a risky choice in the top 10. Good for the Bears for taking the risk. Urlacher has been a staple at linebacker ever since and the face of the Bears franchise.

 Some risks are worth taking.

Worst 9^th Pick - 2004 Jaguars select Washington WR Reggie Williams

You take a wide receiver in the first round and you’re looking for a game changer, a big time deep threat, someone who takes years off opposing defensive coordinator’s lives… Reggie Williams is currently out of football and throughout his forgettable career averaged 2.4 receptions per game. If you drafted him with your seventh round pick, you regretted it. If you took him ninth overall? Someone is getting fired.

Best 8^th Pick - 2003 Panthers select Utah OT Jordan Gross

Give me a Pro Bowl left tackle who starts every game except one in his first six seasons and I’ll gladly give you the eight pick in the draft. You had me at Pro Bowl.

Worst 8^th Pick - 2001 Bears select Michigan WR David Terrell

Noticing a theme? Third WR in a row…maybe history is trying to tell us something.

Tommy Lee Jones with the flashy thing in the locker room is the only accusation that makes any sense in describing David Terrell’s NFL career. He was great in college, that’s why the Bears took him eighth overall. Then he forgot how to catch the ball. In his four years in the NFL Terrell averaged 2.41 catches per game and 30 yards a game, that’s a decent back up tight end or…a great wide receiver for the Rams.

(Honorable Mention: 1999 Cardinals - Ohio State WR David Boston)

Best 7^th Pick - 2007 Vikings select Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson

That’s a game changer. A lot of teams passed on AP because of “injury concerns” and because they didn’t expect him to be around and already had other needs they were happy to fill. Who’s laughing now? Josh Childress, Rick Spielman, Brett Favre…

 Really? You took JaMarcus Russell? You must be kicking yourself pretty hard right about now.

Worst 7^th Pick - 2009 Raiders select Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey

The Raiders have a knack for making lists like this. They really know how to flush a high pick away. I can say with some certainty that they’ll be back later on. When the Raiders passed on Michael Crabtree to take Darrius Heyward-Bey I nearly fell out of my chair. I wanted them to take Crabtree! He would have looked bad-ass in the silver and black. Who is making these decisions? You can’t tell me that a group of grown men made this decision together. It makes no sense. Yes, the Raiders love speed. Yes, Heyward-Bey ran a 4.3, the best time for a WR at the combine. SO WHAT! Crabtree won the Biletnikoff Award, given to the best wide receiver in college football, both years he was in college. If you’re a lot better than someone in college with a slower 40 time (still a 4.55), there is a pretty good chance you’ll be better in the pros with that slower 40 time. Damn it Raiders!

Crabtree played 11 games last year after holding out like a little bitch -- Not fair, it might have been his agent -- Anyway, when Crabtree stopped being a little bitch, he caught 48 balls for 625 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Heyward-Bey also only played in 11 games; he had 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 touchdown… Yeah… In one game last year Brandon Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. But you did real good too Darrius.

Yeah, it’s only been one year. I really don’t care. This one was a bust and the fact that the Raiders had multiple other good options at the same position, all of which they leaped over for two tenths on the 40-yard dash, makes it even worse.

(Honorable Mention - 2005 Vikings - South Carolina WR Troy Williamson)

Best 6^th Pick - 2001 Patriots select Georgia DE Richard Seymour

Seymour was selected to five Pro Bowls in a row from 2002-2006, during that time he won, count them, three Super Bowls. He and Teddy Bruschi were the leaders of that defense, what is there not to like?

Then he got shipped to the Raiders… awkward…

Worst 6^th Pick - 2003 Saints select Georgia DT Johnathan Sullivan

What do you know, Georgia takes best and worst of the sixth picks. Good for them. Okay, if you’ve never heard of Mr. Sullivan, that’s okay, he’s not really worth remembering. He played for the Saints for three years before getting traded to the Patriots where he was promptly dropped. With the Saints he…I’m just going to say it: 1.5 sacks. Sooo… they wish they had that pick back. That or they had taken any of these guys (#10 Terrell Suggs, #16 Troy Polamalu, #31 Nnamdi Asomugha) Then again, the Saints don’t need shit because they won the Super Bowl! So take that me!

(Honorable Mention: 2005 Titans select Adam “Pac Man” Jones -- It’s really not that close, Pac Man had a couple good seasons and became a 99 in Madden in like 2 years in Franchise mode, which is nuts. Unfortunately, Pac Man had serious baggage! Fortunately, he knew how to have a real good time at a strip club. If you’ve seen the video, you know.)

(Picture of “Pac Man” Paying for stripper’s college tuition everywhere.)

Best 5^th Pick - 2001 Chargers trade down and select TCU RB LaDainian Tomlinson

This was a good year for the San Diego Chargers and their GM. They had the worst record in football, so they had the #1 pick in the draft. They traded that pick to Atlanta who selected Michael Vick. San Diego then took LT with Atlanta’s fifth pick and Drew Brees with the first pick in the second round-- heard of him? Yeah, maybe they blew it later by letting Brees go, but they hit two homeruns.

LT made fantasy owners nut in their pants for years. In consecutive seasons he scored 15, 28, 18 and 17, 13 and 14 touchdowns. He has never scored under 10 in any year of his career and last year was the first time he gained under 1,000 yards. LT, the Jets are lucky to have you…even though you suck now.

Worst 5^th Pick --

The fifth pick is clearly the pick to have, because I can’t even choose who the worst player of the past 10 years is, they’re all good. I’m leaning towards Rickie Williams, because of what he cost and his first few years and the whole marijuana thing, but he’s good now, he just is. Here are the last ten #5 picks; Jamal Lewis, LT, Quentin Jammer, Terence Newman, Sean Taylor, Carnell Williams, AJ Hawk, Levi Brown, Glenn Dorsey, Mark Sanchez.

Enjoy tonight Chiefs, you’ve got a freebee.

 Rickie has had his low points, but mostly, it's been the high life.

Best 4^th Pick - 2006 Jets select Virginia OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson

Left tackles aren’t flashy, we know that, but if you’ve seen “The Blind Side,” or better, read the book, you know how important they are. The Brick has started 64 games in a row for the Jets at left tackle, that’s every game he’s been in the league. You think he helped Mark Sanchez make the transition to the NFL? You think he helped Thomas Jones rush for 1,402 yards last year, third most in the league? He’s the real deal, let’s just leave it at that.

Worst 4^th Pick - 2000 Bengals select Florida State WR Peter Warrick

Peter Warrick was the jams at Florida State. I’m going to blame this one on the Bengals. His quarterbacks were Scott Mitchell, Akili Smith and Jon Kitna -- when he sucked, you - “he always sucked!” True, I’m so sorry, Peter.

(Honorable Mention: 2005 Bears - Texas RB Cedric Benson)

 I think you have to blame the Bengals for this one.

Best 3^rd Pick - 2004 Cardinals select Pittsburgh WR Larry Fitzgerald

Any wide receiver who can help lead the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl is really freaking good. Larry Fitzgerald is better than them! Well, he is them, so… Fitzgerald caught a touchdown pass in 18 straight college football games. Most teams don’t score a touchdown in 18 straight games. Larry knows how to catch the damn ball. In the pros, unlike some, he has remembered how. He has over 1,000 yards in 4 of his six professional seasons, over 1,400 in three of them. He’s caught 59 career touchdowns and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

(Honorable Mentions: 2003 Texans - Miami WR Andre Johnson -- and this pick was questioned a lot, “he’s a track guy,” he’s an unreal receiver!, 2000 Redskins - Alabama OT Chris Samuels - Dude didn’t let up a quarterback pressure his senior year at Alabama, think about that)

Worst 3^rd Pick - 1999 Bengals select Oregon QB Akili Smith

I really was rooting for this guy. This was a QB draft of QB drafts. The first three picks were; Couch, McNabb and Smith, later in the first round came Dante Culpepper and Cade McNown, all top twelve picks. I was pulling for Smith to be the best of the bunch…I should have pulled harder. That’s what she said. See how I did that? Moving on…

Although Couch, Smith and McNown all sucked big ones, Smith was the worst. His career numbers were 6 touchdowns (5 passing, 1 rushing), 13 interceptions and 14 fumbles. Quarterback is a tough position…it’s not that tough.

(Honorable Mention - 2002 Detroit - Oregon QB Joey Harrington)

Lesson? Don't pick Oregon QB's in the three hole.

Best 2^nd Pick - 1999 Eagles select Syracuse QB Donovan McNabb

Philadelphia never deserved Donovan. They booed him when he walked up on stage at Madison Square Garden after the Eagles selected him -- they wanted Ricky Williams -- they have never been satisfied with the four NFC Championship games or the Super Bowl and now they have shipped him off to Washington. GOOD! Go Skins!

 McNabb gave and he gave and he gave, and for what?

Worst 2^nd Pick - 2003 Lions select Michigan State WR Charles Rogers

After all the top picks the Lions have thrown away on shitty wide receivers, insert Charles Rogers and Mike Williams here, the fact that the Lions took Calvin Johnson with the second pick in 2008 shows real balls, or more likely just how dumb they are. I know it paid off, I’m just saying: if you try to motorcycle jump the Grand Canyon twice and fail, somehow managing not to die, you shouldn’t try a third time. That’s just a basic rule of survival, you probably shouldn’t have tried the second time.

Charles Rogers was a big skinny man at Michigan State, he was also a big skinny man for the Detroit Lions…he was also a big skinny man when he fathered 5 children, 2 before he graduated from high school. The problem with big skinny men? They take big hits like big skinny men, and after a good start to his rookie season, 22 catches and 3 touchdowns in his first five games, Rogers broke his collar bone twice and didn’t play the rest of the year. Then he started drinking, kept smoking-- he claims to have smoked everyday -- and a year later he was cut. To add insult to his horrid career-- how many second picks stay on your roster for only two year?-- just this month he was ordered by a judge to repay $6.1 of his $9.1 million signing bonus…think he still has that cash? I’m guessing no.

Best 1^st Pick - 2003 Bengals select USC QB Carson Palmer

There really wasn’t a clear cut winner to this. Carson is a top notch QB, but he’s never done anything all that special. One second round playoff game…thrown some touchdowns… Does he really deserve this honor of being the best number one pick of the last ten years? Probably not, but I’m not giving it to Eli Manning, he forced his way to New York like a whiney bitch and his Super Bowl was a fluke and a half. I should have given it to Mario Williams, that pick took balls when everyone was so excited about Reggie Bush. Williams is one of the top DE’s in the league and a game changer, but Reggie got some finger bling this year, and as much as the haters say he’s no good…I think he helps a team with his versatility and his SWAG. So Carson takes it.

(David Tyree picture -- Eli’s Super Bowl...right there… give me those odds in Vegas)

Worst 1^st Pick - 2007 Raiders select LSU QB JaMarcus Russell

I tried to go other ways, I wanted to, but I saw JaMarcus Russell play last year, so I couldn’t. When he successfully drops the ball off to the Fullback it’s an accomplishment. He completes just over 50% of his passes-- that blows for those of you who don’t just know that-- he has thrown 18 touchdowns to 23 interceptions, is fat, has fumbled 25 times, and was benched for Brad Gradkowski!!! I respect Brad, but even Brad knows there isn’t much worse than getting benched for him. You can tell by how hard Brad tries out there. JaMarcus still has time to turn it around, but until he does… He’s the worst pick of the past ten years.

(Honorable Mention: 2005 49ers - Utah QB Alex Smith, 2002 Texans - Fresno State QB David Carr, 1999 Browns - Kentucky QB Tim Couch)

 You can almost tell something is up here.

Statistics That Stand Out

- Lions, Raiders and Bengals combined for 6 of the 9 worst picks. (There was no worst 5^th pick)

- 8 of the 10 teams with top picks of the decade made the playoffs last year including all of the top 7.

- 11 of the 19 best or worst were wide receivers or quarterbacks. Huge risk, reward.

- 6 of the 9 worst picks were wide receivers.

- Every bad pick since 2006 was the Raiders (only two: Heyward-Bey and Russell)

- No team had more than one best pick, maybe because they weren’t picking in the top ten anymore.

- The Lions, Raiders and Bengals all had two of the worst picks.

The bad choices definitely jump out at you; however, the main thing I take from this list is how not-that-great the best selections are. Yeah, some of them are elite talents, but most of the best players in the league are taken later in the draft. Obviously this is just a small portion of the total picks, but they are supposed to be the 10 best players each year. (We did just miss #1 overall Payton by a few years.)

What does this mean? Drafting is not a perfect science, college success is not a perfect indication of professional success, neither is a 40-yard dash time, and you might as well go with an offensive or defensive lineman, because although not as flashy, they usually stick around for a while and are pretty safe bets. Nevertheless, there is an incredible amount of skill involved in selecting a future NFL star and the Raiders, Bengals and Lions need to put in some more time or make some changes in how they do it.

Top 5 Picks in the NFL Draft: Why Most of Them Just Won't Help

Let’s Talk Draft: What teams with top 5 picks need, why they need these players and why these players, in most cases, won’t help a thing.

So let’s get this started, the Rams are on the clock…

RAMS (1-15)

Needs - Steven Jackson, Jason Smith and Chris Long watch from the training room in horror as the team plane goes down on the way back from an off season team-togetherness trip to Mexico. To rebuild quickly, the league allows the Rams to take a few players from each other NFL team to fill its roster-- like an expansion team. The Rams improve vastly at every position.

Sometimes less is actually more.

I would never actually wish this on the Rams, but I think their fans might. They need some serious, serious help. Record wise, no, but talent wise, this team is worse than the 0-16 Lions of 2009. They just are, they have no weapons except Steven Jackson, who is just collecting dust wishing he had stayed in college and was a CPA at a bank somewhere.

Should Pick - Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska. You take Ndamukong Suh here and you thank your lucky stars. He is a force in the inside and a can’t miss. Look at the 2008 Titans, Albert Haynesworth was that team. Kerry Collins did nothing as the quarterback, he managed the games, handed the ball off, and they went 14-2. No one is denying that a quarterback has a bigger affect on a football game than a defensive lineman, but a quarterback with no help or protection develops bad habits and struggles. Take the sure thing, build a hard working no superstar team and then get a quarterback to take you to the next level.

Will Pick - Sam Bradford. Can I blame them? Yes. He is far from a sure thing, he was injured last season, he’s stick thin, he took all of his snaps from shotgun, he has curly hair… The list goes on. The reason they’ll do it? They haven’t had a real franchise quarterback since Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf (Bulger was never thaaaaaaaaaaat good). They’re fans want it and they want their fans. So really maybe you can’t blame them. Defensive Tackle jerseys are just tough to market to skinny people.

LIONS (2-14)

The Lions have built the wrong way, offense first, and because of that they will struggle for a long time. You can’t score enough points to win in the NFL. All great teams have a defense.

 Finally some picks that seem to be paying off for the Lions.

Needs - Lions are pretty solid at QB, RB, WR and TE which is pretty shocking for a 2-14 team. Their defense on the other hand? They gave up a league worst 392.7 yards a game last year, a league worst 265 passing yards a game and an eighth worst 126 rush yards a game. They need some serious help everywhere on D. Oh, did I mention they traded Ernie Sims, their starting middle linebacker and one of their few good defenders?

Should Pick - Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. They should pick him because Suh should be off the board. However, with Suh falling, you go with Suh. A great DT can change the game. He might not make the big hits, force the key fumbles or get the flashy interceptions, but Suh will draw double and triple teams, clog up the middle on runs, create one-on-one matchups for his defensive ends on the outside, and be the hardest working, biggest guy on your team.

Will Pick - Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska. I like it. The Lions need it, they know what they are getting, there is no reason to get cute here. The Lions have messed up too many top 10 picks before.

BUCCANEERS (3-13)

Tampa Bay is really a team on the decline. A classic case of an organization who thinks they are above their players and coaches. Jon Gruden is a great NFL couch, he’s a leader and a schemer. He gets the best out of his players and Tampa thrived under him in his first year, winning the Superbowl. Then Tampa thought, we’re the best! They thought they didn’t need their stars; W. Sapp - gone, M. Pittman - gone, Keyshawn - gone, Simeon Rice - gone, J. Lynch gone, B. Johnson gone. This is a ton of talent lost, but Gruden held the team together, because he is a great coach. Then, when missing the playoff wasn’t enough, even though their record was about 5 games better than their talent dictated, they got rid of Gruden… then they went 3-13. Next year… they probably won’t win three.

Look at the Patriots, an organization that has proven to be above its players and coaches. Through all of the shuffling of coaches and players two things have remained constant; Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren’t going anywhere. 

 Brady and Belichick aren't going anywhere.

Needs: Tampa Bay needs a QB, I know they drafted Josh Freedman last year… Okay, so QB, RB, WR, let’s speed this up, they have an old Ronde Barber, that’s about it.

Should Pick: Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. Tampa Bay allowed the most rushing yards in the league last year, 158 per game. That is a good way to lose games and annoy your fans-- at least passing touchdown are quick. They need a run stopper and with Suh off the board that’s McCoy. Scouts rank him just as high as Suh on most draft boards. He is solid, you have seen him dominate in college. Take the safe impact player at three overall.

Will Pick: Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma. They won’t blow this one, there isn’t really a blow it pick here, who are you going to take Tebow? Haha…ha…ha… Shut it! I’m a big Tebow supporter.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-12)

Here we finally have a team that falls firmly into the underachieved, will be much better next year, category. They lost five games they should have won last year and now they have a franchise quarterback in Donovan McNabb. I see this team in the playoffs next year, so what piece helps them get there?

Needs: They have some talent at WR in Santana Moss and Devin Thomas and two really solid players at TE in Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. Would Dez Bryant help? Yes, but at number four there is no way they can take him here. If they trade down, maybe he comes back into the picture. They also need some help in the defensive backfield and on the offensive line.

Should Pick: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. The Redskins should protect their most recent investment with a very solid offensive tackle. It might not be flashy, but dominant offensive lines win games. We have seen a lot of great running backs and quarterbacks falter when their offensive line deteriorates.

Will Pick: Eric Berry S, Tennessee. The Redskins like to make a splash, they often ignore needs to go with a flashy talent. This team loved hard hitting Sean Taylor and they get a similar player in Eric Berry. This pick is far from thrown away, they address a defensive need in getting Berry and get a top upside talent who is ready to play right now.

 Remind you of anyone else who wore a Redskin's jersey?

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

Another just God awful team. I like rooting for the Chiefs, I’m not really sure why, but I do. This team was right on mark at four wins last year and they will be there for a while. They have a backup for a quarterback, a backup for a running back and well, backups for almost every other position. It’s hard to understand how it gets this bad.

 What happened to Larry Johnson? What happened to the Chiefs? Maybe Larry Johnson happened to the Chiefs.

Should Take: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. or Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa. Berry would have also been an interesting choice, but with him off the board it’s time to choose which offensive tackle you like best.

Will Pick: Russell Okung OT, Oklahoma St. The Chiefs and Scott Pioli are boring, they’ll make the right pick.

I know that all teams do their homework, but I find it extremely interesting when a player falls further than anyone anticipated he would, and teams have to make decisions they didn’t really anticipate having to make. Teams didn’t expect Adrian Peterson to be around after the first three picks in 2007. As a result he fell to 7^th. Teams had to make a choice between addressing a need, one they had really wrapped their minds around and were happy with, and getting a potential game changer. The Lions, Browns, Bucs, Cardinals and Redskins erred on the side of caution. You think they regret that now? I see a lot of those same names in the top 5 of this draft.